Beyond Day 15

The Monopoly Report has rescued our intrepid founder from the windowless room in Virginia and is bringing you insight into the global efforts against the ad side of big tech.

I’m Alan Chapell. I’ve been working at the intersection of privacy, competition and advertising for decades and I’m going to be writing for The Monopoly Report and maybe even doing a podcast here and there.

Beyond Day 15

This past month feels like a late season episode of Game of Thrones where there are lots of emerging plot lines - and everything seems up in the air in the lead-up to the finale. My goal here is to continue Marketecture’s mission to help us collectively make sense of it all.

Most of us are still processing what we learned during the Google DOJ ad tech antitrust case. Ari Paparo and Arielle Garcia each did a fantastic job narrating the trial, and I thought the coverage overall from the industry trades was excellent.

Coming out of this trial, I sense that many of us are thinking more about how to bring this industry we love into the next phase of maturity. And as part of that, there’s a willingness to more openly discuss the problems we’re facing collectively. I’m hopeful that this is more than just a short-term trend.

Here’s where things are heading.

Heading for a Break-up?

It may feel cathartic to have your suspicions about Google validated - and there was lots of evidence which does not speak well of Google. That said, I’d caution everyone to keep the following in mind as you sort through predictions of an imminent Google break-up:

Big hill to climb - The DOJ is up against nearly 50 years of precedent in U.S. anti-trust enforcement. Enforcement was really active coming out of World War II, as the prevailing view of the day was that unchecked corporate power was anti-Democratic. But enforcement hit a buzzsaw during the 1980’s in the Ronald Reagan years and has never really fully recovered. (I’ll have more to say on that subject another time). While the DOJ may have convinced Judge Brinkema that Google is a monopolist, there will almost certainly be a lengthy appeals process. There are more judges that will need convincing before all is said and done – and most of those judges will view the DOJ’s market definition with more than a little skepticism. Google has clearly put most of its eggs in that basket.

A long road (to nowhere?) - Antitrust cases can often take a long time to reach fruition (as witnessed by the EU’s 2017 case against Google Shopping being finalized just this month). More likely than not, there’s a long way to go before this case is resolved. As tone deaf as his statement might have come off, Sundar Pichai was probably right. The case(s) against Google could drag on for years. And any settlement will almost certainly be complex and involve input from regulators around the globe.

Everything is Political – We don’t know who will be in the White House next year, and neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump have really tipped their hand on antitrust policies. If you think there’s zero chance that the new administration drops this cases against Google next year, I invite you to learn more about what happened to the decade long antitrust case against IBM in 1982.

I’m not here to praise or bury Google. There may ultimately be a breakup in Google’s future. I’m just reminding us that the wheels of justice usually move slowly. Always wise to keep that in mind as you’re building your short to mid-term strategy in these parts.

Why Am I Here?

By this point, you may be wondering why I’m writing on these pages. Well… as much fun as Ari had sitting in a Virginia Court room without his electronic devices for two weeks, he needs to get back to focusing on his day job. So, I was pretty psyched when Ari asked me to take over the reins of the Monopoly Report as there seems to be a good deal of interest in this type of analysis. I’m hoping that Ari does what Barbara Walters did on The View and remains a frequent contributor. We’ll leave the light on… 

In case you don’t know me, I’ve been in the digital media space since 1997 - beginning at Jupiter Research while I attended law school. After passing the NY Bar, I made a quick stop at DoubleClick and the email space - and then in 2004 put out my shingle as privacy lawyer for adtech/martech companies. A few years later, I created the Chapell Report – a monthly syndicated research report focusing on privacy, competition and addressability (e.g., post-cookie strategy) for digital media. In other words, providing insight into the global efforts that come up against advertising side of big tech is VERY much my day job. I’m also a musician – so expect lots of references to my favorite bands.

What WILL the Monopoly Report cover?

The two Google DOJ trials will certainly be featured, as will the Google State AG trial (starting in March of 2025), the remedies phase of Google’s trial with Epic and whatever the European Union throws Google’s way. And of course, the Monopoly Report will attempt to share the back story around third-party cookies deprecation and Google’s Commitments to the UK Competition and Markets Authority. (Hint: multiple divisions within Google don’t see eye to eye on the path forward). Overall, we’ll be moving away from ‘All Google All The Time’ programming and moving towards more broadly covering the chess game being played by big tech as it pertains to ads and digital media.

Going forward, the Monopoly Report will share all you need to know about the tectonic plates that are shifting in our industry. I’ll try to be your adtech Rosetta Stone shedding light on some arcane legal concepts (and will definitely tap Ari in for his help in making sense of key tech terms and concepts). And most importantly, I’ll be focusing on how all this stuff is going to impact the business of digital media and advertising. A few examples:

• Will the FTC have as much success in its antitrust cases against Amazon and Meta as the DOJ has had so far with Google?

• Is the U.S. REALLY ready to ban TikTok

• Does the EU ease up on regulating big tech – or do they double down?

• What happens to browsers if/when the search traffic subsidy goes away?

• Will Apple continue to be the Teflon Don of big tech or are regulators going to pull apart iOS and the App Store?

• How are the new big tech companies like Perplexity and OpenAI going to impact the larger digital media community?

I’ll also attempt to translate statements from Google and others in big tech to the marketplace as I’m hopeful we can stop taking everything they say at face value.

Most importantly, I’m here to serve Marketecture’s digital ad community. If there’s an area that you want to see covered on these pages, if you agree/disagree with something I’ve written, or if you just want to yell at me, please reach out to me on LinkedIn or in the comments below.